I had the Braves yesterday despite the Braves OF being at a significant disadvantage. I thought the Braves would simply out pitch the Reds while Homer Bailey struggled a bit on 4 days rest and I was right as the Braves OF combined for 7 hits, the most all season. However, now they'll get a look at a lefty and I think they'll struggle. The Braves are without both Upton's and Heyward and have a AAA OF playing right now. Cingrani has been solid and consistent on the year and I think he can put a quality start together.
Julio Teheran has been dominant with a 2.50 ERA at home, but the Reds have dominated against RHP all year long and are scoring 5.02 runs per 9 over their last 10. It won't take much for the Reds offense to win this game and the Braves are 1-5 in Teheran's last 6 as a favorite -110 to -150.
The Giants bats have finally woken up scoring 23 runs in the last 3 games which is partially due to Pablo Sandoval coming out of his slump. The real story here is the Giants shutout the Padres last night as Tim Lincecum threw a no hitter. Lincecum had been awful on the road all year, but he got 13K's and threw 148 pitches last night which just goes to show you how bad the Padres line up is right now. Today Barry Zito will take the ball and he's been bad on the road but he has a 2.45 ERA during day starts this year and in 3 starts vs. the Padres posts a 1.65 ERA and the Padres hitters have a .676 OPS in 168 AB off him. The Padres are just struggling right now scoring 2.91 runs per 9 vs. LHP in their last 10 games with a .198 average and the Giants won't ask for Zito to go terribly deep as their bullpen is fresh having to only pitch 6 innings in 3 games.
On the flip side Eric Stults has been great, but he's coming off a game where he threw 122 pitches which is 16 more than any other start this year. He only gets 3.5 days of rest since today is a day start and he faces the Giants who have a .336 average and a .874 OPS against him. Sandoval, Posey and Pence all have hit him extremely well going a combined 20-43. Stults also showed signs of slowing down before he faced Colorado allowing 9 ER in 8 innings. Completing a CG shutout against Colorado was not that shocking as the Rockies have been awful vs. LHP on the road and had a minor league line up out there. Michael Cuddyer was the only real threat that Stults had to get by and he still managed to walk 3 guys. The Padres bullpen has struggled in this series and I think they'll struggle here again. Padres are 29th in OPS during day games and 28th in ERA during day games this year.
